# Will Paige Beauchemin be the Democratic nominee for NH-02

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 56% across 5 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.459Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 56% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollie Noveletsky | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hollie-noveletsky-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxnhprimary-01r26-hnov |
| Anthony DiLorenzo | 69¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-dilorenzo-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxnhprimary-01r26-adil |
| Maggie Goodlander | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maggie-goodlander-be-the-democratic-nominee-f-kalshi-kxnhprimary-02d26-mgoo |
| Lily Tang Williams | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lily-tang-williams-be-the-republican-nominee-kalshi-kxnhprimary-02r26-lwil |
| Victor Orlando | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-victor-orlando-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxnhprimary-02r26-vorl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 48 |
| 2026-06-10 | 60 |
| 2026-06-18 | 67 |
| 2026-06-25 | 45 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the current estimated chance that Paige Beauchemin will be selected as the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. The 37% assessment reflects significant competition within the Democratic primary field, with Maggie Goodlander priced at 92 cents on related contracts, indicating she is viewed as the frontrunner. Beauchemin's probability could shift based on fundraising totals, endorsements from state party figures, polling data as the election cycle progresses, and performance in any debates or public forums. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, providing definitive confirmation of the nominee. Until then, market movements will likely respond to campaign developments including candidate spending reports, media coverage, and any organizational momentum within New Hampshire Democratic circles.

### Key factors

- Maggie Goodlander is priced at 92 cents on the Democratic NH-02 nominee contract, suggesting she is the primary competitor and Beauchemin faces a crowded field
- Low trading volume on Beauchemin's contract ($25 24h vol) indicates limited market conviction and potential illiquidity that could affect price accuracy
- The 37% probability implies a three-way or multi-candidate race where no single candidate has dominant support
- Primary election timing and filing deadlines will serve as key decision points for candidate participation and viability
- Candidate fundraising reports and voter polling releases between now and the primary will provide concrete performance metrics to reassess probabilities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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