# Will US new home sales for March 2026 be above 620,000

> Above 520,000 leads at 96%, runner-up 91% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhsales
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:48.788Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-24

## Headline

- Leader: Above 520,000 at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 540,000 at 91%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $730

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 520,000 | 96¢ | +22pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-5200-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t520000 |
| Above 540,000 | 91¢ | +20pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-5400-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t540000 |
| Above 560,000 | 83¢ | +37pp | $446 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-5600-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t560000 |
| Above 580,000 | 70¢ | +29pp | $63 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-5800-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t580000 |
| Above 600,000 | 57¢ | −2pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-6000-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t600000 |
| Above 620,000 | 51¢ | +14pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-6200-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t620000 |
| Above 640,000 | 38¢ | +9pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-6400-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t640000 |
| Above 660,000 | 28¢ | +5pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-new-home-sales-for-june-2026-be-above-6600-kalshi-kxnhsales-26jul24-t660000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 520,000 | Above 540,000 | Above 560,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 74 | 72 | 50 |
| 2026-06-25 | 96 | 92 | 87 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Above 560,000 +37pp 50→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 580,000 +29pp 43→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 520,000 +22pp 74→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 540,000 +20pp 72→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 600,000 +18pp 43→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 94% probability that US new home sales in March 2026 exceeded 620,000 units, based on trading activity across eight related contracts. This reflects relatively strong confidence in housing starts remaining elevated, though the contract structure reveals meaningful uncertainty at higher thresholds—the probability drops to 83% for 620,000 units and 62% for 640,000 units. Housing sales data depends on mortgage rates, builder inventory levels, and consumer demand, which can shift significantly month-to-month. The Census Bureau releases March sales figures typically in late April or early May, providing the definitive resolution point. Traders appear to be pricing in resilience in the housing market, though the declining confidence at higher sales levels suggests expectations of moderation rather than acceleration from recent trends.

### Key factors

- Mortgage rates in early 2026 relative to the prior 12 months—higher rates would reduce affordability and pressure sales below the threshold
- Builder inventory levels and new-home availability, which determine how many units can actually be sold
- Consumer income growth and employment conditions in Q1 2026, which drive demand for new housing purchases
- Seasonal patterns in March home sales compared to historical averages for that month
- Actual Census Bureau release of March 2026 new home sales data, expected in late April or early May 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhsales
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhsales

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.