# Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Democratic party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party

> Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win leads at 76%, runner-up 12% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhsengovcombo
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.036Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win at 76%
- Runner-up: Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win at 12%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $690

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win | 76¢ | +4pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-governor-winner-be-republican-p-kalshi-kxnhsengovcombo-26nov-repdem |
| Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win | 12¢ | +1pp | $643 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-governor-winner-be-republican-p-kalshi-kxnhsengovcombo-26nov-reprep |
| Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-governor-winner-be-democratic-p-kalshi-kxnhsengovcombo-26nov-demrep |
| Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-hampshire-governor-winner-be-democratic-p-kalshi-kxnhsengovcombo-26nov-demdem |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win | Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win | Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 77 | 9 | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — | 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | 16 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | 39 | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 75 | — | 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | 50 | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | 73 | — | 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | 73 | 12 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | 77 | 13 | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win −25pp 75→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win +13pp 60→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win +10pp 50→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win +4pp 73→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that New Hampshire will elect Democratic candidates for both its governor and U.S. Senate seat in 2026. Currently priced at 48%, a Democratic sweep is the second-most likely outcome, trailing the scenario where Republicans win the governorship while Democrats retain the Senate seat. The Democratic sweep outcome's relative weakness reflects uncertainty about the gubernatorial race, where Republican incumbency or candidate strength may pose challenges. Key catalysts include the official entry of candidates, primary elections that clarify each party's nominee quality, and major campaign events or shifts in state economic conditions through election day. Polling trends from recognized New Hampshire surveys will provide ongoing signals about which party is gaining momentum.

### Key factors

- New Hampshire's recent voting patterns show lean-Democratic federal preferences but swing-state dynamics in gubernatorial races, making both outcomes plausible
- Current Republican Senate incumbent's status and whether the seat appears competitive will heavily influence the joint probability
- Quality and name recognition of each party's gubernatorial nominee, once finalized, represents a major update point for this market
- Economic conditions and national political environment in mid-2026 will shape turnout and candidate viability heading into November
- Polling data from credible New Hampshire surveys showing head-to-head matchups will provide empirical signals that traders incorporate into prices

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nhsengovcombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nhsengovcombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.