# Will the nickel close price be above 15099.99 USD/T on Apr 30, 2026 — above $15099.99

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 20 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nickelmon
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:26.160Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $40K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $107 | 72¢ | +6pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-107-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t107 |
| above $110 | 45¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-110-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t110 |
| above $107.50 | 63¢ | +3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1075-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t107.50 |
| above $108 | 57¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-108-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t108 |
| above $108.99 | 52¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1089-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t108.99 |
| above $5013.99 | 7¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-501399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t5013.99 |
| above $5.92 | 46¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-copper-close-price-be-above-592-usdlbs-on-kalshi-kxcopperd-26may0417-t5.92 |
| above $109.50 | 45¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1095-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t109.50 |
| above $118.99 | 20¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1189-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t118.99 |
| above $76.50 | 45¢ | +24pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-silver-close-price-be-above-7650-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxsilverd-26may0417-t76.50 |
| above $112 | 22¢ | −7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-112-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t112 |
| above $114 | 11¢ | −7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-114-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t114 |
| above $5.96 | 36¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-copper-close-price-be-above-596-usdlbs-on-kalshi-kxcopperd-26may0417-t5.96 |
| above $112.99 | 39¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1129-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t112.99 |
| above $110.50 | 39¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1105-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t110.50 |
| above $4610 | 57¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-4610-usdtoz-on-kalshi-kxgoldd-26may0417-t4610 |
| above $110.99 | 48¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1109-kalshi-kxbrentw-26may0817-t110.99 |
| above $116 | 8¢ | −2pp | $988 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-116-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t116 |
| above $112.50 | 21¢ | −8pp | $933 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-1125-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t112.50 |
| above $115 | 13¢ | −6pp | $924 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-brent-crude-oil-close-price-be-above-115-kalshi-kxbrentd-26may0417-t115 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · above $76.50 +24pp 22→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $112.99 +13pp 24→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $118.99 +10pp 11→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $108.99 +9pp 39→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · above $76.50 −8pp 30→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nickelmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nickelmon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.