# Will Brian Varela be the Democratic nominee for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nj07d
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.720Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $335

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Varela | 15¢ | ±0 | $318 | kalshi | /markets/will-brian-varela-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ne-kalshi-kxnj07d-26-bvar |
| Rebecca Bennett | 81¢ | ±0 | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-rebecca-bennett-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxnj07d-26-rben |
| Michael Roth | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-roth-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ne-kalshi-kxnj07d-26-mrot |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 40 |
| 2026-04-25 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |
| 2026-05-08 | 83 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Brian Varela +7pp 1→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nj07d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nj07d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.