# NJ-12 Democratic Primary Winner

> Adam Hamawy leads at 72%, runner-up 13% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nj12-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.012Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Leader: Adam Hamawy at 72%
- Runner-up: Verlina Reynolds-Jackson at 13%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $528

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamawy | 72¢ | +3pp | $145 | polymarket | /markets/nj-12-democratic-primary-winner-adam-hamawy-polymarket-0xf324ac954a786a2d7d8a465377329ea9f8365a7b23844bb8883bc6fd8ee9f131 |
| Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | 13¢ | ±0 | $160 | polymarket | /markets/nj-12-democratic-primary-winner-verlina-reynolds-j-polymarket-0x5d75941c23682bccdf7d5f0d2afd12f13ee22c3278f11f0bace0564824026013 |
| Susan Altman | 9¢ | −4pp | $223 | polymarket | /markets/nj-12-democratic-primary-winner-susan-altman-polymarket-0xfbfd5a87e13d649295e2bb32654792b04853c09c152a4a5e33067ec0e8b00098 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Adam Hamawy | Verlina Reynolds-Jackson | Susan Altman |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 | 33 | 20 |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 | 19 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 13 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 | 13 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 71 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 74 | — | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Adam Hamawy +20pp 47→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Verlina Reynolds-Jackson −8pp 21→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Adam Hamawy +6pp 65→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Susan Altman −4pp 14→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Adam Hamawy +4pp 44→48¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 50% probability indicates that market participants view one particular candidate as having a slight edge in the NJ-12 Democratic primary race, though the outcome remains substantially uncertain. The current pricing reflects competitive primary dynamics where multiple candidates likely hold viable paths to nomination. Movement in this probability would depend primarily on campaign momentum, fundraising announcements, and polling data as primary day approaches. The primary election results will definitively resolve this market, eliminating uncertainty around the eventual Democratic nominee in this district. Market participants are monitoring candidate performance in early voting periods, local endorsement patterns, and any shifts in voter registration or turnout indicators that could signal changing dynamics in the race.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate is priced at 50%, indicating marginal frontrunner status rather than prohibitive favorite odds
- The runner-up at 13% suggests a compressed field with multiple viable alternatives rather than a two-person contest
- Trading volume of $816 in the top Polymarket contract indicates moderate but not high liquidity, potentially limiting price discovery
- No single candidate has achieved dominant pricing above 60%, suggesting material uncertainty about electability or voter preferences remains
- The multi-outcome structure with six bound contracts implies at least 3-4 candidates with measurable support and organizational capacity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nj12-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nj12-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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