# How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Jun 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/njgolfvisitcount
Updated: 2026-06-30T13:20:52.017Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $119

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97¢ | +5pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-times-will-donald-trump-visit-trump-natio-kalshi-kxnjgolfvisitcount-26jun-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 49 |
| 2026-06-25 | 94 |
| 2026-06-27 | 99 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The market is pricing an approximately 68% probability that Donald Trump visits Trump National Golf Club Bedminster exactly once during June 2026. This forecast reflects expectations about his schedule and travel patterns during a specific month, with the remaining 32% of probability distributed across zero visits, two visits, three visits, or four visits. The high concentration on the single-visit outcome suggests traders believe one trip is most likely based on his typical seasonal usage patterns and known commitments. Key drivers include his presidential schedule and any publicly announced events at the property. The probability will resolve definitively only after June 30, 2026, when visit records become verifiable. Until then, changes in announced schedules or reported visits would shift trader expectations substantially.

### Key factors

- Trump's publicly announced schedule for June 2026, including confirmed appearances and events at or away from the property
- Historical visit frequency to Bedminster during June in prior years as a baseline for typical behavior
- Current weather and seasonal factors affecting golf course conditions and travel appeal during that specific month
- Any officially reported visits or property activity documented during the June 1-30 window, which would narrow remaining uncertainty
- Scheduling conflicts or competing commitments that would affect his availability to visit the property

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/njgolfvisitcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=njgolfvisitcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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