# NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC

> NJ/NY Gotham FC leads at 71%, runner-up 19% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/njny-gotham-fc-vs-boston-legacy-fc
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:10.780Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: NJ/NY Gotham FC at 71%
- Runner-up: Draw (NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC) at 19%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $78

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ/NY Gotham FC | 71¢ | +16pp | $61 | polymarket | /markets/njny-gotham-fc-vs-boston-legacy-fc-njny-gotham-fc-polymarket-0x74f9b857678326b63bed04ed3b831a5b7d989ff6be0c11e952bbe9126c7db09d |
| Draw (NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC) | 19¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/njny-gotham-fc-vs-boston-legacy-fc-draw-njny-gotha-polymarket-0x7af8601fb2c4a95c4315cf7ec8075e97a08c36e05e5696ddc74a9457dbc93344 |
| Boston Legacy FC | 12¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/njny-gotham-fc-vs-boston-legacy-fc-boston-legacy-f-polymarket-0x42fbfd340f85e2e337a1786b714166f5b023f0ba0623a87b68e2011b27006b28 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | NJ/NY Gotham FC | Draw (NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC) | Boston Legacy FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 54 | 28 | 27 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 20 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | 19 | 11 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · NJ/NY Gotham FC +16pp 54→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Boston Legacy FC −15pp 27→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Boston Legacy FC) −8pp 28→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability indicates that Boston Legacy FC is favored to win the NJ/NY Gotham FC matchup, with a near-statistical tie between that outcome and a draw at 30%. The market pricing suggests moderate confidence rather than overwhelming likelihood. Factors influencing this probability include each team's current form, head-to-head history, home-field advantage considerations, and any recent roster changes or injuries. The match outcome will be determined by the game itself, which serves as the singular resolution event. Until the match is played, the tight clustering of outcomes at 30-31% reflects genuine uncertainty about the result, with no outcome commanding substantial market consensus.

### Key factors

- Boston Legacy FC priced marginally higher than both a draw and NJ/NY Gotham FC (31% vs 30% vs runner-up outcome), indicating weak differentiation between top scenarios
- Two available contracts show zero 24-hour trading volume, suggesting low liquidity and limited recent market activity updating prices
- The three-way outcome structure (two teams plus draw) results in no single outcome exceeding one-third probability, indicating dispersed market expectations
- Recent form, injury status, and head-to-head historical performance would materially shift the probability if materially different from current market pricing
- The scheduled match date is the only resolution catalyst; pre-match announcements regarding lineup changes or external factors could shift probabilities before the game occurs

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/njny-gotham-fc-vs-boston-legacy-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=njny-gotham-fc-vs-boston-legacy-fc

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