# Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/njprimary
Updated: 2026-06-13T13:20:50.695Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 93% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $400

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosie Pino | 93¢ | +2pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-rosie-pino-be-the-republican-nominee-for-nj-0-kalshi-kxnjprimary-09r26-rpin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 79 |
| 2026-06-01 | 75 |
| 2026-06-08 | 3 |
| 2026-06-11 | 42 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · Rosie Pino −94pp 97→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Rosie Pino +31pp 9→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-09 · Rosie Pino +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Sue Altman wins the Democratic primary for New Jersey's 12th congressional district. A 37% probability reflects moderate confidence but significant uncertainty about her candidacy's viability. The outcome will depend on primary field composition, her political profile and fundraising capacity relative to competitors, and local Democratic voting patterns. Key factors include whether she enters the race, total candidate competition, her performance in early polling or endorsements, and turnout dynamics in the district. The primary election date would be the decisive moment for resolution.

### Key factors

- Sue Altman's official announcement of candidacy or confirmation she is running for NJ-12
- Number and strength of competing Democratic candidates in the primary field
- Polling results showing support levels among likely Democratic primary voters in NJ-12
- Endorsements from county Democratic organizations or other established party figures
- Early fundraising totals and ability to build campaign infrastructure

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/njprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=njprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.