# NK Osijek vs. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb - More Markets: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nk-osijek-vs-nk-lokomotiva-zagreb-more-markets-nk
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $882

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 50% probability that NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win by 2 or more goals against NK Osijek in an upcoming Croatian football match. The even split suggests significant uncertainty about the outcome. Lokomotiva Zagreb's recent form and home-field advantage (if applicable) would be primary factors pushing the probability up, while Osijek's defensive strength or recent results would weigh against it. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played, making the actual result the single decisive catalyst. Current pricing shows minimal trading volume across related markets, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. The comparable markets listed—primarily Asian football Over/Under 2.5 goals at 54-65 cents—suggest modest goal-scoring expectations across professional leagues on this date.

### Key factors

- Head-to-head record and recent form between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Osijek in the 2025-26 Croatian season
- Goal differential and defensive performance metrics for both teams over their last 5-10 matches
- Whether the match is played at Lokomotiva's home stadium, where they typically have a statistical advantage
- Total trading volume and liquidity in this contract—current 50% pricing with minimal volume suggests limited consensus among market participants
- Injury status of key attacking and defensive players for both sides, which directly affects goal-scoring probability in a -1.5 spread bet

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nk-osijek-vs-nk-lokomotiva-zagreb-more-markets-nk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nk-osijek-vs-nk-lokomotiva-zagreb-more-markets-nk

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.