# Will Andreu Mas-Colell win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 8 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nobelecon
Updated: 2026-07-14T08:20:49.979Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-14

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Barro | 7¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-barro-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-rob |
| Partha Dasgupta | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-partha-dasgupta-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-pri-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-par |
| Richard Blundell | 7¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-blundell-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-pr-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-ric |
| Susan Athey | 7¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-susan-athey-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-i-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-sus |
| Ernst Fehr | 6¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ernst-fehr-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-in-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-ern |
| Matthew Rabin | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-rabin-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-mat |
| Andreu Mas-Colell | 6¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andreu-mas-colell-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-p-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-and |
| Ariel Pakes | 6¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ariel-pakes-win-the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-i-kalshi-kxnobelecon-26-ari |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 20 |
| 2026-07-05 | 7 |
| 2026-07-13 | 8 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the market's estimate of the likelihood that Andreu Mas-Colell, a prominent Catalan economist, will win the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. At 9%, he ranks among several candidates with comparable probabilities, suggesting moderate recognition for his contributions but significant uncertainty about whether he will be selected. The economics prize typically goes to researchers whose work has shaped the field over decades—Mas-Colell's contributions to general equilibrium theory and microeconomic foundations are well-regarded, but the prize is notoriously difficult to predict. The Nobel Prize is announced in October each year, which is the primary event that will resolve this contract. Market probability levels like this reflect both Mas-Colell's established reputation and the inherent difficulty of forecasting a decision made by the Swedish Academy, where selection criteria and committee composition evolve.

### Key factors

- Mas-Colell's citation record and theoretical contributions to general equilibrium and microeconomic theory will determine his academic standing relative to competitors
- The Swedish Academy's historical pattern of recognizing either foundational theoretical work or applied research in behavioral economics may favor or disadvantage different candidate profiles
- Mas-Colell's age and career trajectory relative to other nominees affects typical selection patterns, as the prize often goes to scholars mid-to-late career
- No living economist has a guaranteed claim to the prize; past winners from his research area and generation provide calibration for relative chances
- The October 2026 announcement date is the definitive catalyst that will resolve all speculation about this year's recipient

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nobelecon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nobelecon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.