# Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch — $1B

> $50M leads at 64%, runner-up 46% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.361Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 64%
- Runner-up: $100M at 46%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 64¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xc7c99a2c2612576067c6acba21925eb648dad7de4a814e941fd059841e192dd5 |
| $100M | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0xda27fc65671b4ad81424ee2d8d73a0fa0dfb414b43059fb214cd8686e266369f |
| $200M | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x453a2839b3391a01a78e0c9c5b3da4871d4921270b569ce900effbc7eb7232e7 |
| $300M | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x4057a1df81a31d326068f516202d7836031724fc21ca9ca0fc008f8f84e2987c |
| $500M | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x79faa4053e9e41723fa3870f1d623dd4e18af655c8ddd689f403e62a986c2ce6 |
| $700M | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-700m-polymarket-0x0fec7ca076864d3f912f309ea1a93883045c72cbc663a1b0d8cfe6672c6558c3 |
| $1B | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xf03fa134064e65b28ee05edce23acf0b2ea94544861cbc7fcc240cda733afc7c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 35 | 19 | 17 |
| 2026-04-25 | 44 | 21 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 62 | 37 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 63 | 47 | 34 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $100M +6pp 41→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $50M −3pp 65→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M +3pp 38→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $300M +3pp 27→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M +3pp 21→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract forecasts whether Noble's fully diluted valuation will exceed $1 billion within one day of its launch. The current 60% probability reflects moderate confidence in reaching that valuation threshold at debut. Market pricing suggests significant uncertainty, as related contracts show varying confidence levels across different FDV targets ($500M at 44¢ versus $100M at 89¢), indicating traders disagree on the likely launch valuation. The outcome depends primarily on investor demand at launch, the tokenomics structure, and comparable valuations within the blockchain infrastructure sector. Resolution will be determined by publicly available FDV calculations immediately following the token's market debut, making this sensitive to the exact launch date, initial token price discovery, and circulating supply methodology. Market fragmentation across competing prediction platforms suggests the forecast may shift substantially closer to launch as more information about Noble's fundraising and positioning emerges.

### Key factors

- Noble's previous funding rounds and valuation, if disclosed, provide a baseline for market expectations around launch valuations
- Token supply structure and unlock schedule directly determine FDV calculations, influencing whether $1B threshold is mathematically achievable at launch prices
- Comparable blockchain infrastructure projects' launch valuations establish a reference class for what similar-stage projects typically achieve
- Market conditions and cryptocurrency sentiment on launch day will significantly impact initial price discovery and token demand
- Timing of the actual launch date remains a key unknown variable affecting forecast resolution probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.