# North Carolina Senate Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-carolina-senate-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Roy Cooper (D) at 84%
- Runner-up: Michael Whatley (R) at 16%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper (D) | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/north-carolina-senate-election-winner-roy-cooper-d-polymarket-0x129dbcb7d39ff8df5f0d7685a2db6400b5db37d3963914486fbb7fd2bc96a923 |
| Michael Whatley (R) | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/north-carolina-senate-election-winner-michael-what-polymarket-0xd59f25520a8c0ea44a9c9741a97c8c3d769e21f1479b9a14e1a9d475e91f522a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Roy Cooper (D) | Michael Whatley (R) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 86 | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 86 | 15 |
| 2026-06-06 | 86 | 15 |
| 2026-06-07 | 85 | 16 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-09 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-15 | 84 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 85 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 86% probability reflects market expectation that a specific candidate will win North Carolina's Senate seat, with the remaining 14% assigned to the alternative outcome. Current market pricing is heavily influenced by polling data and historical voting patterns in the state, which has trended Republican in recent cycles. The probability could shift materially based on campaign developments, economic conditions closer to Election Day, or changes in voter registration patterns. The North Carolina Senate election is scheduled for November 2026, providing several months for new information to emerge that could adjust these odds. Key determinants include candidate quality, national political environment, and turnout dynamics in competitive regions of the state.

### Key factors

- Recent North Carolina statewide elections show Republican strength, but Senate races can diverge from presidential patterns due to candidate-specific factors
- Polymarket contracts show significant volume concentration ($17,426 in 24h volume for comparable race), indicating active price discovery but relatively modest total liquidity
- Kalshi margin-of-victory contracts price Republican victory at 1+ points (11¢) and Democratic 9+ point victory at 51¢, suggesting asymmetric outcome expectations
- The November 2026 election date is approximately six months away, leaving substantial time for polling shifts, candidate emergence or withdrawal, or demographic changes to materially alter probabilities
- Volume and pricing differences across platforms may reflect different market participants and information sets, worth monitoring for consensus shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-carolina-senate-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=north-carolina-senate-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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