# North East United FC vs. FC Goa

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-east-united-fc-vs-fc-goa
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:51.146Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 42% / Polymarket 30% — 12pp spread
- 24h volume: $482K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 56¢ | −1pp | $136K | kalshi | /markets/liverpool-at-manchester-united-totals-over-35-goal-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03munlfc-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 74¢ | +1pp | $130K | kalshi | /markets/liverpool-at-manchester-united-totals-over-45-goal-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03munlfc-4 |
| Manchester United wins by over 1.5 goals | 9¢ | −1pp | $95K | kalshi | /markets/manchester-united-wins-by-over-15-goals-manchester-kalshi-kxeplspread-26may03munlfc-mun1 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 85¢ | ±0 | $67K | kalshi | /markets/liverpool-at-manchester-united-totals-over-25-goal-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03munlfc-2 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 83¢ | +1pp | $27K | kalshi | /markets/liverpool-at-manchester-united-totals-over-15-goal-kalshi-kxepltotal-26may03munlfc-1 |
| Manchester United wins by over 2.5 goals | 32¢ | −1pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/manchester-united-wins-by-over-25-goals-manchester-kalshi-kxeplspread-26may03munlfc-mun2 |
| May 2026 | 20¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-protest-within-the-united-states-that-draws-kalshi-kxmajorprotest-26may |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | −1pp | $614 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-25-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-2 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 75¢ | +2pp | $418 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-15-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-1 |
| United States | 48¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | 43¢ | +1pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-daeje-polymarket-0x76a37b690aecd81c24c5bf469243f7175236ac231ad8298c834611ede69b687c |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 11¢ | −2pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Leeds United wins by over 1.5 goals | 4¢ | +1pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/leeds-united-wins-by-over-15-goals-leeds-united-wi-kalshi-kxeplspread-26may11totlee-lee1 |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 5¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p9 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p11 |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p3 |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 16 |
| 2026-04-26 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +17pp 46→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +17pp 63→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · Manchester United wins by over 1.5 goals +11pp 9→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Manchester United wins by over 1.5 goals +8pp 13→21¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-east-united-fc-vs-fc-goa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=north-east-united-fc-vs-fc-goa

## License

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