# Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-korea-invade-south-korea
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.163Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $174

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | 6¢ | ±0 | $174 | polymarket | /markets/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 7 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 7 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-korea-invade-south-korea
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=north-korea-invade-south-korea

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.