# Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 14 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-korea-nuclear
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.429Z
Category: geopolitics
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $94K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July | 9¢ | +1pp | $86K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jul |
| Before 2027 | 48¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27 |
| Before September | 25¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26sep |
| Before August | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-be-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug |
| Minnesota | 16¢ | −1pp | $535 | kalshi | /markets/will-minnesota-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-min |
| Significant decrease | 55¢ | −1pp | $304 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-test-scores-in-reading-decline-significant-kalshi-kxustestsreading-26-sd |
| Before 2028 | 67¢ | −1pp | $217 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-28 |
| No significant difference | 30¢ | +1pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-test-scores-in-reading-decline-no-signific-kalshi-kxustestsreading-26-nsd |
| Baltimore | 42¢ | ±0 | $67 | kalshi | /markets/will-baltimore-win-the-pro-football-afc-north-divi-kalshi-kxnflafcnorth-27-bal |
| Cincinnati | 34¢ | +2pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-win-the-pro-football-afc-north-div-kalshi-kxnflafcnorth-27-cin |
| Chicago | 23¢ | −2pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-pro-football-nfc-north-divisi-kalshi-kxnflnfcnorth-27-chi |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 74¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-29jan20 |
| Roy Cooper | 84¢ | +1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-26-d |
| Michael Whatley | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-26-r |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 56 |
| 2026-05-25 | 52 |
| 2026-06-01 | 44 |
| 2026-06-08 | 33 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Before August −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Significant decrease −5pp 63→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Before 2027 −4pp 51→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · No significant difference −4pp 31→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before July −3pp 15→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/north-korea-nuclear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=north-korea-nuclear

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.