# Norway Eliteserien

> Winner: Bodø/Glimt leads at 51%, runner-up 45% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/norway-eliteserien
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.208Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Bodø/Glimt at 51%
- Runner-up: Winner: Fredrikstad at 45%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Bodø/Glimt | 51¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-bodglimt-polymarket-0x5c42ec4a2e26ae2824c05d104898adb2ccc483c767d46919ecbacc5d4a6b87c6 |
| Winner: Fredrikstad | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-fredrikstad-polymarket-0x440268cce30c5d3be2ddfb9d19b89f666ed4bfa535c6928cae2c94cf049422a1 |
| Winner: Sandefjord | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-sandefjord-polymarket-0xc4be20c729392f4fb55ca8a8787d74e6aba80a2ed1cb94c030a3dc4e24ea902b |
| Winner: Viking | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-viking-polymarket-0xa8de7686ce25e535bdf727315903d110e818dcc59dd58d2b04320bfa4f8f0fa2 |
| Winner: Lillestrøm | 19¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-lillestrm-polymarket-0xa497652809e8f33b860e380914a7f54065ace3eb6ca4770cd8958ef71bf47c66 |
| Winner: Brann | 17¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-brann-polymarket-0xfa7f1b060a114fffdf1036d55de5d501337fb2bc091ea4799522b9cf7bd081db |
| Winner: Tromsø | 12¢ | +24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-troms-polymarket-0xde16d9e049e6eae14c7d06808c739d0d173c214daac0d6a59a2d0837b3742a54 |
| Winner: Molde | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-molde-polymarket-0x78abfa1ac0e386cbd82b3011e1f590933f668cacaca5f8289cd569b27fed3d0e |
| Winner: Kristiansund | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-kristiansund-polymarket-0xee538f377fab8b1236182c8fb08cfc91f0647c6c43b6a5732e4ef66367f02b85 |
| Winner: Aalesund | 5¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-aalesund-polymarket-0x2745605f5404054a595bbb8d6c20c037925011337065ebceba12466d70945e70 |
| Winner: KFUM Oslo | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-kfum-oslo-polymarket-0x0b75d05522bbc2e110bf5f74389bab7bc7b66fa7d83a782eb04df7569579f680 |
| Winner: Start | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-start-polymarket-0xcf86f073dd5c9cea07aa9b94293a3fac51096b419fb8507956b59f6bb093568f |
| Winner: Vålerenga | 3¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-vlerenga-polymarket-0xfaad29d02d03279078e1274b5b33df95b11b3f97d2549f4a4a30718a93baf2a4 |
| Winner: Rosenborg | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-eliteserien-winner-rosenborg-polymarket-0xd67f690a54c9beddc1a83fb2232797af32f88f0286e14dc471efb062b2adedb2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Bodø/Glimt | Winner: Fredrikstad | Winner: Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 43 | 44 | 43 |
| 2026-05-01 | 56 | 45 | 46 |
| 2026-05-02 | 58 | — | 43 |
| 2026-05-09 | 52 | 47 | 46 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Kristiansund −29pp 33→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Winner: Tromsø +24pp 16→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Rosenborg −10pp 13→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Bodø/Glimt −8pp 59→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Molde −4pp 26→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Bodø/Glimt is priced at 56% to win the 2026 Norway Eliteserien season, reflecting market expectations that they will finish with the most points in the league. The contract implies roughly even odds versus all other competitors combined, with Fredrikstad as the second-favorite at around 42%. Market conviction appears modest, as indicated by near-zero trading volume across all contracts. The probability is primarily driven by Bodø/Glimt's historical strength, current squad composition, and early-season performance, while uncertainty stems from injury risk, mid-season transfers, and performance variability among rival squads. The league season typically concludes in November, with the final standings determining the winner. Key seasonal milestones—transfer windows, injury updates, and head-to-head results between top contenders—will continuously shape market pricing until resolution.

### Key factors

- Bodø/Glimt's win probability (56%) is substantially higher than runner-up Fredrikstad (42%), suggesting a perceived quality gap between the top two teams
- Trading volume across all 11 contracts is zero over 24 hours, indicating minimal market liquidity and suggesting prices may not reflect active price discovery
- Fredrikstad's contract at 42¢ implies a two-horse race; cumulative probability of all other eight teams is approximately 2%, which reflects either dominant form by the top two or potential underpricing of alternatives
- The season runs through approximately November 2026; early-season standings (current month) heavily influence probability, as relegation battles and injury cascades will likely reshape competitive balance
- Polymarket's multi-outcome structure bounds each contract individually; the 56% reflects only Bodø/Glimt's isolated price, not a comparison or hedge against specific rivals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/norway-eliteserien
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=norway-eliteserien

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.