# Norway vs. France

> France leads at 56%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/norway-vs-france
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.481Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-26

## Headline

- Leader: France at 56%
- Runner-up: Norway at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-vs-france-france-polymarket-0x09620e07d807241bb41e5cf07d42dfd3e08943ee39e5c93ae3890e3b6164822e |
| Norway | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-vs-france-norway-polymarket-0x057885f5f49261eb41504e24899a88e53cb364ddf95e3c0df5608200feaddff8 |
| Draw (Norway vs. France) | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-vs-france-draw-norway-vs-france-polymarket-0x0061b1d4b49c44a05365d60389167968baf42f2b1ab99c3d8b80a8554980d9e8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | France | Norway | Draw (Norway vs. France) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | — | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 43 | — | 30 |
| 2026-05-06 | 45 | — | 34 |
| 2026-05-07 | 44 | 32 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 45 | — | 33 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Norway vs. France) +4pp 30→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · France +3pp 42→45¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

France is priced at 42% to win in a three-way matchup against Norway and a third opponent, based on aggregated contract data from prediction markets. This reflects France's historical strength in international competition and squad depth, though the relatively modest probability indicates material uncertainty about the outcome. The pricing depends heavily on team form leading up to the fixture, recent injury status of key players, and head-to-head tactical matchups. Market participants appear divided, with France favored but not overwhelmingly so, suggesting the match is genuinely competitive. Any late-stage injuries to star players or shifts in recent performance data could shift probabilities materially in either direction.

### Key factors

- France's contract price (39¢) on dedicated Norway vs. France contracts is lower than the aggregated headline (42%), indicating some divergence in market pricing across venues
- Volume concentration in France contracts ($208 24h on Kalshi) versus competing matchups suggests France-focused trading activity driving the benchmark probability
- The three-way market structure means France's 42% reflects competition from both Norway and a third outcome, not a direct bilateral contest
- Recent international match results and current injury reports for both squads would be the primary drivers of repricing before match day
- Senegal's varying odds across contracts (29¢ vs 48¢ against Norway) reflects uncertainty about the full tournament structure or bracket implications

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/norway-vs-france
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=norway-vs-france

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.