# Norway vs. Senegal

> Norway leads at 48%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/norway-vs-senegal
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.661Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Norway at 48%
- Runner-up: Draw (Norway vs. Senegal) at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-vs-senegal-norway-polymarket-0x9814196ae917e1c962ce23612be50554586828a996b06c800d502a137001bc25 |
| Draw (Norway vs. Senegal) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-vs-senegal-draw-norway-vs-senegal-polymarket-0x7e88fd883e66a95417ac88e33876c14479a06e7aaae4c23494233622e2ee0467 |
| Senegal | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/norway-vs-senegal-senegal-polymarket-0x6a6255f95ea0e78d9e8d016908e386989e3e92ef5127b56c7234bd5eafbb3dc5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Norway | Draw (Norway vs. Senegal) | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 31 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 49 | 30 | 28 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 31 | 28 |
| 2026-05-09 | 49 | 29 | 28 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Norway will defeat Senegal in an upcoming match, with Norway priced as the favorite at 48% compared to Senegal at 29%. The valuation likely reflects differences in team strength, recent performance, or head-to-head history, though the relatively modest gap suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Key factors shifting this probability would include team roster changes, recent form data, or specific match conditions. The primary resolution driver is the scheduled match itself—once played, the contract settles based on the actual result, eliminating all uncertainty around this particular matchup.

### Key factors

- Norway is priced 19 percentage points above Senegal despite being a binary outcome, indicating the market assigns materially higher win probability to Norway rather than treating this as roughly even
- Volume on the Norway vs. Senegal contracts is minimal ($5 per side in 24h), meaning the price may be less efficiently discovered than higher-volume markets and could shift significantly with modest new trading activity
- France is priced at 69% across a separate contract involving Senegal, suggesting external tournament structure or group dynamics may influence expectations about individual matchups
- The three-way contract structure creates dependencies—the runner-up at 30% and third option at remainder must sum with the 48% leader, constraining how extreme any single outcome can be priced
- No specific match date or tournament window is specified in available data, meaning resolution timing and whether conditions (injury updates, weather forecasts) will emerge before kickoff remains unknown

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/norway-vs-senegal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=norway-vs-senegal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.