# Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.29 on Jun 30, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 15 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/note10m
Updated: 2026-06-10T13:20:11.613Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: 4.25% or above at 43%
- Runner-up: 4.3% or above at 10%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25% or above | 43¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10m-26jun30-t4.24 |
| 4.3% or above | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10m-26jun30-t4.29 |
| 4.35% or above | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10m-26jun30-t4.34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.25% or above | 4.3% or above | 4.35% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 43 | — | — |
| 2026-06-09 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19 | 5 | 5 | 93 |
| 2026-06-26 | 56 | 60 | 63 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · 4.25% or above +44pp 5→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · 4.3% or above +42pp 5→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 4.35% or above −38pp 93→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 4.3% or above +33pp 47→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 4.25% or above +32pp 49→81¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/note10m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=note10m

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.