# Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.14 on Dec 31, 2026

> 4.75% or above leads at 28%, runner-up 17% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/note10y
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.908Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 4.75% or above at 28%
- Runner-up: 5% or above at 17%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75% or above | 28¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10y-26dec31-t4.74 |
| 5% or above | 17¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10y-26dec31-t4.99 |
| 5.1% or above | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10y-26dec31-t5.09 |
| 5.15% or above | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-yield-of-10-year-us-treasury-notes-be-abo-kalshi-kxnote10y-26dec31-t5.14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.75% or above | 5% or above | 5.1% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 23 | 5 | 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | 31 | 16 | 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | 30 | 18 | 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | 23 | — | 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | — | 4 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · 4.75% or above −12pp 33→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · 5.1% or above −5pp 9→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · 4.75% or above +4pp 29→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · 5.1% or above −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 26% probability that 10-year U.S. Treasury yields will exceed 5.14% by December 31, 2026. The prediction reflects expectations about Federal Reserve policy, inflation trajectory, and economic growth over the next six months. Markets currently favor yields staying below this level, with traders assigning higher probabilities to outcomes between 4.74% and 5.09%. The key driver is whether the Fed maintains its current monetary stance or shifts course based on inflation and labor-market data. Major economic data releases—particularly inflation reports, employment figures, and Fed statements—will be the primary catalysts that could shift probability. The outcome ultimately depends on whether Treasury yields rise sharply from current levels, requiring either significant economic deterioration or an inflation resurgence to justify rates at this elevated threshold.

### Key factors

- Current 10-year yield levels as of June 2026 and the recent trend trajectory determine the distance needed to reach 5.14%
- Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance between June and December 2026 directly influence long-term yields
- Inflation data releases over the second half of 2026, particularly CPI and PCE reports, will impact expectations for real yields
- Employment and economic growth indicators will signal whether the Fed maintains accommodation or considers rate adjustments
- The pricing pattern across the four contracts (27¢ at 4.99%, 6¢ at 5.14%) shows market conviction that yields are unlikely to reach the highest threshold

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/note10y
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=note10y

## License

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