# Will Fukuoka Hawks win the Japan NPB

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 8 contracts — refreshed 5 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/npb
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:36:02.067Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-15

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4.7M

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 9¢ | +1pp | $891K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-fina-kalshi-kxnba-26-nyk |
| Philadelphia | 14¢ | −2pp | $839K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-philadelphia-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnbaeast-26-phi |
| Detroit | 3¢ | +1pp | $762K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-detroit-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-final-kalshi-kxnba-26-det |
| San Antonio | 22¢ | +1pp | $581K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-f-kalshi-kxnba-26-sas |
| Los Angeles L | 3¢ | −2pp | $547K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-los-angeles-l-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnba-26-lal |
| New York | 40¢ | +5pp | $461K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-new-york-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-east-kalshi-kxnbaeast-26-nyk |
| Oklahoma City | 58¢ | −1pp | $457K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-oklahoma-city-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnba-26-okc |
| Los Angeles L | 3¢ | ±0 | $194K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-los-angeles-l-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-kalshi-kxnbawest-26-lal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · New York +11pp 36→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · New York +9pp 27→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Philadelphia −7pp 12→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · San Antonio −6pp 22→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Philadelphia +5pp 7→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/npb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=npb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.