# Will Penrith Panthers win the National Rugby League Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nrlchamp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.074Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-30

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrith Panthers | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penrith-panthers-win-the-national-rugby-leagu-kalshi-kxnrlchamp-26-pen |
| Brisbane Broncos | 8¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brisbane-broncos-win-the-national-rugby-leagu-kalshi-kxnrlchamp-26-bri |
| Melbourne Storm | 6¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-melbourne-storm-win-the-national-rugby-league-kalshi-kxnrlchamp-26-mbs |
| Sydney Roosters | 13¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sydney-roosters-win-the-national-rugby-league-kalshi-kxnrlchamp-26-syd |
| New Zealand Warriors | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-zealand-warriors-win-the-national-rugby-l-kalshi-kxnrlchamp-26-war |
| Wests Tigers | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wests-tigers-win-the-national-rugby-league-ch-kalshi-kxnrlchamp-26-wtg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 35 |
| 2026-04-25 | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 29 |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Brisbane Broncos −11pp 19→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Penroth Panthers will win the 2026 National Rugby League Championship based on aggregated market prices. At 20%, the market is pricing the team as a meaningful contender but not among the clear favorites. The current assessment likely reflects recent form, roster composition, and historical performance, with probabilities shifting based on injury updates, mid-season results, and performance in upcoming fixtures. The NRL season progresses through regular rounds with critical matches and injury reports continuously shaping expectations. Key catalysts include the team's performance in the next month of competition and any significant roster changes before trade deadlines, which would test whether the current 20% assessment is properly calibrated relative to competing teams.

### Key factors

- Penrith's historical performance as a recent NRL powerhouse (multiple consecutive finals appearances and recent premierships) relative to current squad composition and roster retention
- Current win-loss record through early 2026 season matches compared to other title contenders and playoff qualification trajectory
- Key player availability and injury status, particularly among core squad members who drove previous championship runs
- Market concentration in betting volume—the 20% reflects aggregated pricing across multiple contracts rather than a single consensus forecast, indicating disagreement among traders
- Remaining regular season schedule difficulty and proximity to critical end-of-season fixtures that typically determine premiership contention

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nrlchamp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nrlchamp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.