# Will NVIDIA still be the largest company?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 6 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nvidia-largest-company
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:11.327Z
Category: markets · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 16% / Polymarket 80% — 64pp spread
- 24h volume: $47K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 91¢ | ±0 | $45K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-june-nvidia-polymarket-0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95 |
| NVIDIA | 68¢ | +2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/largest-company-end-of-december-2026-nvidia-polymarket-0x684e5b72d4e407695397a79ed75ef37273c2655ca2548791a4153233d3744696 |
| Yes | 6¢ | −1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-score-in-the-economist-intelligence-uni-kalshi-kxirandemocracy-27mar01-t6 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-or-spacex-announce-a-definitive-binding-kalshi-kxcompanyactionmerger-27-26oct01 |
| Yes | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-company-announce-that-it-has-achieved-art-kalshi-kxagico-comp-26q3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 69 |
| 2026-05-25 | 47 |
| 2026-06-01 | 73 |
| 2026-06-08 | 92 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −11pp 24→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Yes −7pp 53→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · NVIDIA −5pp 71→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · NVIDIA +4pp 69→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · NVIDIA +3pp 92→95¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nvidia-largest-company
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nvidia-largest-company
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.