# Will Tera Anderson be the Republican nominee for NV-03

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nvprimary
Updated: 2026-06-11T13:20:51.987Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Blockey | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jim-blockey-be-the-republican-nominee-for-nv-kalshi-kxnvprimary-01r26-jblo |
| Marie Arnold | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marie-arnold-be-the-republican-nominee-for-nv-kalshi-kxnvprimary-01r26-marn |
| Rick Saga | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rick-saga-be-the-republican-nominee-for-nv-01-kalshi-kxnvprimary-01r26-rsag |

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Tera Anderson has a 41% estimated chance of becoming the Republican nominee for Nevada's 3rd congressional district. The market assessment reflects both her political positioning within Nevada Republican circles and the broader competitive dynamics of the primary race. Factors pushing the probability higher would include strong polling performance among likely Republican primary voters, endorsements from established party figures, or demonstrated fundraising strength. Conversely, the probability could decline if other candidates gain momentum or if Anderson faces significant controversies. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will provide the definitive outcome, though earlier indicators like candidate filing deadlines, debate participation, and polling trends will offer clues about her viability in the coming weeks.

### Key factors

- Primary election date of June 2026 will determine the Republican nominee for NV-03
- Anderson's current 41% probability suggests she faces at least one competitive challenger in the race
- Kalshi volume on this contract at typical market depth indicates moderate but not exceptional trader interest in this specific race
- Performance in any candidate debates or public forums prior to June voting could shift voter preferences materially
- Endorsements from Nevada Republican establishment figures or Trump-aligned leaders could meaningfully impact primary dynamics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nvprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nvprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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