# Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 49 million

> Above 47 million leads at 94%, runner-up 92% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nvvisit
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.044Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 47 million at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 48 million at 92%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 47 million | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t47 |
| Above 48 million | 92¢ | +51pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t48 |
| Above 49 million | 87¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t49 |
| Above 50 million | 51¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t50 |
| Above 51 million | 18¢ | −12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t51 |
| Above 52 million | 5¢ | −8pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t52 |
| Above 53 million | 5¢ | −5pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t53 |
| Above 54 million | 4¢ | −5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-nevadas-statewide-visitor-volume-for-2026-be-kalshi-kxnvvisit-27jun30-t54 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 47 million | Above 48 million | Above 49 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | 93 | 86 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | 88 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | 41 | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | 92 | 87 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 48 million −52pp 93→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 48 million +51pp 41→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 51 million −12pp 37→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 52 million −8pp 14→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 53 million +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market assigns 94% probability that Nevada will exceed 48 million visitors in 2026, with 86% confidence it surpasses 49 million. This reflects expectations about tourism recovery and growth in the state's primary economic driver. The current probability level suggests consensus that visitor volumes will remain robust, though there is meaningful uncertainty about whether the state reaches the higher thresholds (59% for 50 million, 34% for 51 million). Key factors shaping these estimates include Las Vegas convention attendance trends, national travel spending patterns, and any disruptions to gaming or hospitality sectors. Nevada tourism data for 2026 will be officially released in early 2027, at which point the actual visitor count will resolve the uncertainty. Current low trading volume indicates limited recent market activity on these contracts.

### Key factors

- Las Vegas gaming revenue and hotel occupancy rates through 2026 will indicate whether convention and leisure travel meet historical baseline expectations
- National discretionary spending and airfare costs in 2026 will affect whether out-of-state visitors travel to Nevada at sufficient volume
- Any significant disruption to major Las Vegas properties, conventions, or events would reduce the likelihood of achieving target visitor volumes
- The gap between 48M and 49M visitors represents approximately 1% variance, yet the market prices them 8 percentage points apart, suggesting traders view the 49M threshold as a material step upward
- Official Nevada Tourism Commission visitor count release (expected Q1 2027) will provide definitive resolution based on documented visitation metrics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nvvisit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nvvisit

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.