# Michael Saylor net worth on Dec 31, 2026

> At least $2.5 billion leads at 63%, runner-up 60% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nwsaylor
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.524Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: At least $2.5 billion at 63%
- Runner-up: At least $2.0 billion at 60%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least $2.5 billion | 63¢ | ±0 | $134 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-2-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-2.5 |
| At least $2.0 billion | 60¢ | −6pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-2-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-2.0 |
| At least $3.0 billion | 48¢ | −2pp | $329 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-3-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-3.0 |
| At least $3.5 billion | 37¢ | +3pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-3-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-3.5 |
| At least $4.0 billion | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-4-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-4.0 |
| At least $4.5 billion | 18¢ | +1pp | $281 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-4-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-4.5 |
| At least $5.0 billion | 14¢ | +3pp | $797 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-5-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-5.0 |
| At least $5.5 billion | 8¢ | −1pp | $275 | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-5-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-5.5 |
| At least $6.0 billion | 7¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/michael-saylor-net-worth-on-dec-31-2026-at-least-6-kalshi-kxnwsaylor-26-6.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least $2.5 billion | At least $2.0 billion | At least $3.0 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 70 | 78 | 59 |
| 2026-06-23 | 69 | 79 | 57 |
| 2026-06-24 | 63 | 75 | 56 |
| 2026-06-25 | 54 | 66 | 44 |
| 2026-06-26 | 54 | 60 | 42 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · At least $3.0 billion −12pp 56→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · At least $2.0 billion −9pp 75→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · At least $2.5 billion −9pp 63→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least $5.0 billion −8pp 22→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · At least $4.5 billion −7pp 28→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that Michael Saylor's net worth will exceed $2.0 billion by year-end 2026. The assessment hinges primarily on MicroStrategy's stock performance, since Saylor owns approximately 17% of the company and his net worth correlates closely with its valuation. Secondary factors include Bitcoin holdings and market sentiment around AI and corporate treasury management. The outcome will be largely determined by MicroStrategy's share price movement over the next six months, with quarterly earnings reports and Bitcoin's price trajectory serving as key information points. The spread between the $2.0 billion threshold (84% probability) and higher tiers ($3.0 billion at 57%, $6.0 billion at 10%) suggests market confidence in achieving the lower bound but significant uncertainty about upside scenarios.

### Key factors

- MicroStrategy stock price on December 31, 2026 and resulting market capitalization—the largest determinant of Saylor's net worth given his ~17% ownership stake
- Bitcoin's market price trajectory through year-end 2026, both as direct holdings and as a proxy for market sentiment affecting MicroStrategy's AI/intelligence software positioning
- MicroStrategy's quarterly earnings reports and guidance through Q4 2026, which will inform valuation multiples applied by markets
- Aggregate market capitalization of publicly-traded AI and business intelligence software companies relative to MicroStrategy's relative valuation
- Net asset changes from Saylor's personal transactions, including stock sales, donations, or margin adjustments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nwsaylor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nwsaylor

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.