# Will San Diego Wave FC win the NWSL Championship Game

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 9 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nwsl
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.325Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-06

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $139

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Thorns | 14¢ | ±0 | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-portland-thorns-win-the-nwsl-championship-gam-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-pth |
| Washington Spirit | 23¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-spirit-win-the-nwsl-championship-g-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-wsp |
| Utah Royals FC | 10¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-utah-royals-fc-win-the-nwsl-championship-game-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-uro |
| San Diego Wave FC | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-wave-fc-win-the-nwsl-championship-g-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-san |
| Gotham FC | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gotham-fc-win-the-nwsl-championship-game-goth-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-got |
| Kansas City Current | 16¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-current-win-the-nwsl-championship-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-kc |
| Seattle Reign | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-reign-win-the-nwsl-championship-game-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-rei |
| Angel City FC | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angel-city-fc-win-the-nwsl-championship-game-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-ang |
| Boston Legacy FC | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-legacy-fc-win-the-nwsl-championship-ga-kalshi-kxnwsl-26-bos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 12 |
| 2026-07-13 | 15 |
| 2026-07-20 | 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | 21 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 5% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego Wave FC has a one-in-twenty chance of winning the NWSL Championship Game. This assessment is lower than several competitors, particularly Washington Spirit at 10%, suggesting traders view the Wave as less likely contenders this season. The probability is driven by factors including team roster composition, mid-season performance metrics, and injury status relative to other NWSL clubs. The championship will be resolved on November 9, 2026, when the final match concludes the season. Until then, the probability may shift based on regular-season results, playoff positioning, and head-to-head performance against other title contenders through the rest of 2026.

### Key factors

- San Diego Wave FC's regular-season win-loss record and points accumulation relative to competitors through the 2026 season
- Comparative odds across other teams show Washington Spirit at 10% and Kansas City Current at 4%, indicating market differentiation based on recent performance or roster strength
- The team's injury status and roster availability leading into the playoff period in late 2026
- Historical NWSL Championship performance patterns and how San Diego's recent tournament results compare to other clubs
- Playoff bracket positioning and path to the final, which depends entirely on regular-season standings determined by match outcomes through November 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nwsl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nwsl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.