# Racing Louisville vs Orlando Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 12 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nwslgame
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:09.599Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Thorns | 59¢ | +5pp | $856 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-portland-thorns-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-pth |
| Denver Summit FC | 33¢ | — | $198 | kalshi | /markets/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-winner-denver-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03bosden-den |
| Chicago | 16¢ | +3pp | $192 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-chicago-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-chi |
| Tie | 27¢ | +5pp | $97 | kalshi | /markets/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03bosden-tie |
| Bay FC | 13¢ | +2pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc-winner-bay-fc-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03sanbay-bay |
| Tie | 21¢ | +6pp | $83 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-tie |
| Racing Louisville | 11¢ | +3pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/gotham-vs-racing-louisville-winner-racing-louisvil-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03gotrac-rac |
| San Diego Wave FC | 67¢ | +52pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc-winner-san-diego-wave-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03sanbay-san |
| Gotham | 11¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/gotham-vs-racing-louisville-winner-gotham-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03gotrac-got |
| Boston Legacy FC | 40¢ | +5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-winner-boston-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03bosden-bos |
| Tie | 17¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03sanbay-tie |
| Tie | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gotham-vs-racing-louisville-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03gotrac-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 15 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · San Diego Wave FC +52pp 14→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Portland Thorns +13pp 38→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tie +8pp 6→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tie +6pp 15→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Portland Thorns +5pp 51→56¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nwslgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nwslgame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.