# NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

> Laura Gillen leads at 74%, runner-up 17% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny04-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.590Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Laura Gillen at 74%
- Runner-up: Nicholas Sciretta at 17%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $85

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gillen | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-04-democratic-primary-winner-laura-gillen-polymarket-0xd426b5e37b1adeb4a30ed0ece09fe70b5ca0aee2392a43c97b18af26b3fec447 |
| Nicholas Sciretta | 17¢ | +1pp | $60 | polymarket | /markets/ny-04-democratic-primary-winner-nicholas-sciretta-polymarket-0x576b5f5f1ec1fb585d195f3310148efabbd11ec45679b7835228fb3431c648a4 |
| Taylor Darling | 4¢ | −4pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/ny-04-democratic-primary-winner-taylor-darling-polymarket-0x45e9f73bf450dbfa9bc56a6e9361b18c2e66cfa503222e3bc5aec0e366036cf8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Laura Gillen | Nicholas Sciretta | Taylor Darling |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 17 | 7 |
| 2026-04-11 | 73 | 16 | 7 |
| 2026-04-23 | 77 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-04-25 | 77 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 75 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 75 | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 75 | 15 | 5 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Taylor Darling +6pp 8→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Taylor Darling −4pp 14→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Taylor Darling −4pp 9→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that a specific candidate has a 76% chance of winning the NY-04 Democratic primary. The leading candidate currently holds this probability advantage, with the second-place candidate at 11%, indicating meaningful separation but not certainty. Primary elections depend on voter turnout, candidate positioning, and shifts in district demographics or recent endorsements. The probability could move substantially based on polling shifts, debate performance, or unexpected candidate withdrawals. The primary election date itself serves as the ultimate resolution point, and interim developments like campaign finance disclosures, endorsements from established party figures, or organized labor support could shift trader expectations measurably in the weeks leading up to voting.

### Key factors

- Current price reflects a significant but not overwhelming lead; the frontrunner would need to maintain current support levels or improve to reach 80%+ territory
- Runoff scenarios or ranked-choice voting rules, if applicable in NY-04, create additional complexity that could shift outcomes compared to simple plurality assumptions
- Candidate spending, advertising, and field operations in the final weeks typically drive observable momentum shifts that traders respond to
- Endorsements or organizational support from established Democratic figures can move probabilities by 10-20 percentage points if perceived as consequential
- Historical turnout patterns in NY-04 primary elections determine which demographic groups show up, directly affecting which candidate benefits most

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny04-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny04-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.