# NY-06 Democratic Primary Winner

> Grace Meng leads at 76%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny06-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.578Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Grace Meng at 76%
- Runner-up: Yan Xiong at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Meng | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-06-democratic-primary-winner-grace-meng-polymarket-0xda7a201c01efd88a01d48062b5ceffcce65757b7080a6c2ef01c75a7352e20ba |
| Yan Xiong | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-06-democratic-primary-winner-yan-xiong-polymarket-0x59f4dc0d1a0093ef8c1ee8f024fbd86435e3acfa0e0614d5d3643a88c39a69a5 |
| Charles Park | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-06-democratic-primary-winner-charles-park-polymarket-0xa35e08ad7737b6a9e4c968ad5a091b24eeba6a76fbfcfede25d245dbc9b686a9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Grace Meng | Yan Xiong | Charles Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 30 |
| 2026-04-10 | 70 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-04-25 | 56 | 23 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 31 | 23 |
| 2026-05-09 | 77 | 26 | 15 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Grace Meng +16pp 56→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Grace Meng +7pp 49→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Charles Park −7pp 23→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Grace Meng +5pp 72→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Yan Xiong −5pp 29→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 68% probability indicates that one particular candidate is currently favored to win the NY-06 Democratic primary, though roughly one-third of the market assigns meaningful probability to alternative outcomes. Primary outcomes depend heavily on candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns, local campaign infrastructure, and turnout dynamics in this specific district. The most significant driver of probability movement would be the primary election date itself—once voting concludes, the contract resolves based on actual results. Leading indicators like polling releases, major endorsement announcements, or campaign finance disclosures typically precede primary elections by weeks to months and can shift market sentiment substantially. Currently, the 68%-29% split suggests the front-runner holds a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage.

### Key factors

- Candidate funding levels and cash-on-hand reports prior to the primary election
- Endorsement patterns from local Democratic organizations, unions, or high-profile elected officials
- Polling data tracking (if publicly available) showing candidate name recognition and head-to-head matchups
- Voter turnout expectations and demographic composition of registered Democrats in NY-06
- Campaign infrastructure indicators including field office openings, staff hires, and volunteer mobilization timelines

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny06-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny06-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.