# NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner

> Claire Valdez leads at 72%, runner-up 27% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny07-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.561Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Claire Valdez at 72%
- Runner-up: Antonio Reynoso at 27%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Valdez | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-07-democratic-primary-winner-claire-valdez-polymarket-0xc47d5386411a75a6b87c78cafd47993a42ad8b8b0df166e9722a275269449612 |
| Antonio Reynoso | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-07-democratic-primary-winner-antonio-reynoso-polymarket-0xdc00146a77dbe0f17e69b4c5d71e9358b0e9eaae4908ab993e0fff0c566abb11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Claire Valdez | Antonio Reynoso |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 74 | 20 |
| 2026-04-25 | 76 | 21 |
| 2026-04-30 | 74 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 27 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Antonio Reynoso +5pp 21→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 73% probability indicates that one candidate (identified by contract address 0xc47d5386411a75a6b87c78cafd47993a42ad8b8b0df166e9722a275269449612) is favored to win the NY-07 Democratic primary, with a 26% alternative implied by the runner-up contract. The gap between the leader and the 27-cent Antonio Reynoso contract suggests the market is pricing in either a frontrunner with substantial name recognition or polling advantage in this New York district race. Primary turnout patterns, endorsements from party establishment figures, and recent polling movements would likely shift this probability. The primary election date itself—whether scheduled for June 2026 or later—represents the single largest catalyst that will resolve this market. Until voting occurs, movements in this probability will primarily reflect new polling data, campaign developments, or shifts in candidate viability.

### Key factors

- The leader commands a 47-point advantage over the runner-up (73% vs 26%), suggesting a candidate with measurable but not overwhelming lead
- Antonio Reynoso is separately priced at 27 cents, indicating fragmented market opinion on whether he or another candidate captures the primary
- The $679 24-hour volume on the NY-07 Democratic primary contract is modest compared to other active races, suggesting limited market conviction or participation
- Primary turnout composition—particularly the age and neighborhood demographics of who votes—will be a key variable affecting the favorite's viability
- Any shifts in endorsements, polling releases, or campaign momentum between now and the primary date would materially move this probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny07-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny07-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.