# NY-08 Democratic Primary Winner

> Hakeem Jeffries leads at 94%, runner-up 11% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny08-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.173Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Hakeem Jeffries at 94%
- Runner-up: Vance Bostic at 11%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-08-democratic-primary-winner-hakeem-jeffries-polymarket-0x885af440160b32c882027f0ed610b6a9b311262a6a0518fa9529a050f078fad2 |
| Vance Bostic | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-08-democratic-primary-winner-vance-bostic-polymarket-0xa3f664300e2d8db84ab5dffcb4391bdc5cd3828c3900b61aaa7c5aed8b8e68af |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hakeem Jeffries | Vance Bostic |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 96 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 96 | 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | 96 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 96 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-03 | 97 | 12 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 13 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Vance Bostic +5pp 7→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Vance Bostic +3pp 10→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 95% probability indicates strong market confidence in a particular candidate winning the NY-08 Democratic primary. This reflects either a commanding polling lead, consolidated endorsements, fundraising advantage, or some combination of factors that has created clear frontrunner status. The probability could shift downward if a challenger gains unexpected momentum, if polling tightens, or if a significant event affects the frontrunner's standing. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this uncertainty, determining whether market expectations align with actual voter preferences. Until then, the market is pricing in a heavily favored outcome while acknowledging roughly 5% residual uncertainty for upset scenarios.

### Key factors

- Current frontrunner maintains substantial polling lead or fundraising advantage over nearest competitor
- Divisive issues or scandals affecting the leading candidate could rapidly shift market odds
- Consolidation of endorsements among progressive or establishment Democratic factions narrows alternative paths to nomination
- Candidate name recognition and voter turnout patterns in NY-08 will test whether polling translates to actual results
- Late-breaking organizational developments or surprise candidate entries before the election could challenge frontrunner status

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny08-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny08-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.