# NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

> Brad Lander leads at 83%, runner-up 19% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny10-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.714Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Brad Lander at 83%
- Runner-up: Dan Goldman at 19%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Lander | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-10-democratic-primary-winner-brad-lander-polymarket-0x3ad92107dbab2fdf45b0ed92dc5a7f721210759a648ae53fe363e26e3f62d29f |
| Dan Goldman | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-10-democratic-primary-winner-dan-goldman-polymarket-0x8294f5eaebd9699d10c62965a17015b6b59bb2a5dfe96063e17b7125885c2499 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Brad Lander | Dan Goldman |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 85 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 87 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 82 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | 83 | 19 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Dan Goldman +4pp 16→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

NY-10 is assigned an 83% probability that a particular Democratic candidate will win the primary election for New York's 10th Congressional District. This probability is aggregated from a limited volume of trading activity on Polymarket, where contracts have traded at an average of 51 cents. The relatively high probability suggests markets view one candidate as a strong frontrunner, likely based on incumbency status, fundraising advantage, or polling data. The primary outcome will depend on voter turnout, endorsement patterns, and campaign spending in the coming weeks. The resolution date tied to New York's primary election calendar would be the key event determining the winner.

### Key factors

- Market volume for NY-10 Democratic Primary contracts remains low at approximately $816 over 24 hours, limiting the confidence that can be placed in price accuracy
- The 83% probability exceeds the 51% average price from the underlying Polymarket contracts, indicating the aggregation method may be weighting external data sources or applying adjustments beyond market pricing
- New York primary election dates and candidate filing deadlines are fixed calendar events that could clarify field composition and candidate viability
- Comparable Democratic primary markets in the aggregated data show wide probability ranges (16%-80%), suggesting primary outcomes have substantial uncertainty across similar races
- Incumbent status, cash-on-hand, and prior electoral performance in the district would be factual metrics available for comparative analysis of candidate strength

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny10-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny10-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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