# NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

> Alex Bores leads at 47%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny12-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.745Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Alex Bores at 47%
- Runner-up: Micah Lasher at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bores | 47¢ | +2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ny-12-democratic-primary-winner-alex-bores-polymarket-0x1af009052969324fe877b8339e173ae39c8c8c6b7db75a41cd091bfe4ec04265 |
| Micah Lasher | 31¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/ny-12-democratic-primary-winner-micah-lasher-polymarket-0x3ff129c6f6737846a0b7912778da9c68f3766fbe4c8056224bd12de7e3ecfc10 |
| Jack Schlossberg | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-12-democratic-primary-winner-jack-schlossberg-polymarket-0xd42612a6ea2c06736853604ee6287f64f94aca371144b1254a6a19fcb27b01ae |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alex Bores | Micah Lasher | Jack Schlossberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 36 | 41 | 17 |
| 2026-04-25 | 27 | 47 | 23 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 | 40 | 17 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | 32 | 19 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Micah Lasher −7pp 47→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Alex Bores +7pp 35→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Jack Schlossberg +5pp 17→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Micah Lasher −3pp 40→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Alex Bores +3pp 43→46¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner market shows the current frontrunner at 39% probability of winning the nomination, while a close challenger holds 34%. This reflects moderate confidence rather than a clear favorite, suggesting the race remains competitive. The outcome depends largely on voter turnout patterns, endorsement consolidation among progressive and moderate wings of the party, and fundraising momentum in the weeks before voting. The primary election date—scheduled for June 2026—will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market, though early voting patterns and final polling in May could narrow uncertainty beforehand. Until then, any major endorsements, debate performance assessments, or campaign developments could shift probabilities materially between the leading contenders.

### Key factors

- Current leader at 39% vs runner-up at 34% indicates a 5-point separation with substantial remaining uncertainty
- Polymarket contracts show modest trading volume ($816 24h on the top related race) suggesting limited market depth and potential for larger probability swings on new information
- The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means support is distributed across at least three candidates, with the leader holding less than 40% of total probability mass
- June 2026 primary date creates a defined resolution window within 4 weeks, making near-term developments (endorsements, polling releases) key probability movers
- Proximity to related NY congressional primaries (NY-07 at 27¢) suggests broader patterns in regional Democratic preferences that may influence NY-12 dynamics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny12-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny12-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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