# Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny12d
Updated: 2026-06-15T19:20:49.508Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bores | 35¢ | ±0 | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-bores-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-1-kalshi-kxny12d-26-abor |
| Micah Lasher | 63¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-micah-lasher-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-kalshi-kxny12d-26-mlas |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 45 |
| 2026-06-01 | 45 |
| 2026-06-08 | 47 |
| 2026-06-15 | 65 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Micah Lasher +7pp 55→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Alex Bores −5pp 37→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Alex Bores −3pp 41→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Micah Lasher +3pp 62→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Jack Schlossberg will win the Democratic primary for New York's 12th congressional district. At 33%, the market suggests Schlossberg is a competitive but not favored candidate in what is likely an open or contested race. The probability reflects expectations about his name recognition, fundraising capacity, and support among district voters compared to other potential candidates. Key drivers of movement would include primary field composition changes, polling data among registered Democrats in NY-12, endorsements from local party figures, and fundraising reports. The primary election date or filing deadline for NY-12 would be the critical event that determines whether this race materializes and begins to resolve the uncertainty around Schlossberg's actual viability as a nominee.

### Key factors

- New York's 12th district Democratic primary field composition and whether Schlossberg faces crowded opposition or limited challengers
- Public polling or survey data showing Schlossberg's name recognition and favorability among NY-12 Democratic primary voters
- Fundraising reports and campaign resources available to Schlossberg versus competing candidates in the district
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures, unions, or party organizations within New York's 12th district
- The filing deadline date for NY-12 primary candidates and any formal announcement of Schlossberg's candidacy

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny12d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny12d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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