# NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

> Adriano Espaillat leads at 70%, runner-up 29% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny13-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.036Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Adriano Espaillat at 70%
- Runner-up: Darializa Avila Chevalier at 29%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriano Espaillat | 70¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-13-democratic-primary-winner-adriano-espaillat-polymarket-0xba8526e4bf87c26c043d7048d364508d066117c173a91f2c56a82128fdc9102c |
| Darializa Avila Chevalier | 29¢ | −1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ny-13-democratic-primary-winner-darializa-avila-ch-polymarket-0x09e25ccabb32e8d68fed95405ffe3975ffcb2af7de61b1de2f4eb22f1b375029 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Adriano Espaillat | Darializa Avila Chevalier |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 63 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 63 | 32 |
| 2026-04-25 | 44 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 69 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 71 | 29 |
| 2026-05-09 | 70 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 70% probability indicates that one candidate is currently favored to win the NY-13 Democratic primary, with a meaningful 30% chance for the runner-up. Democratic primary contests are shaped by candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns, grassroots organizing capacity, and primary turnout composition. The current split reflects market participants' assessment that the frontrunner holds an edge but faces real competition. The primary election date and any major developments—such as high-profile endorsements, debate performance shifts, or fundraising reports—will be key signals that could move this probability. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty, suggesting the race is viewed as competitive rather than settled.

### Key factors

- The 70-30 split indicates concentrated but not overwhelming confidence in the leading candidate, suggesting competitive dynamics rather than a dominant frontrunner
- Democratic primary outcomes often shift based on turnout composition and last-minute endorsements; changes in either could move the probability significantly
- No major comparable NY state Democratic primaries show as trading volume on Polymarket (NY-07 at 27¢ is lower conviction), suggesting limited data density for calibration
- The runner-up maintains 30% implied probability, meaning market participants assign roughly 1-in-3 odds to an alternative outcome
- Primary election timing and any debate or endorsement announcements before voting will likely trigger volatility and probability updates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny13-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny13-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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