# NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner

> Ritchie Torres leads at 93%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny15-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.219Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Ritchie Torres at 93%
- Runner-up: Michael Blake at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $709

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritchie Torres | 93¢ | −1pp | $709 | polymarket | /markets/ny-15-democratic-primary-winner-ritchie-torres-polymarket-0xe8ddce0b363dec3cd83336187125c4b23ba35ddd9ab082356b38f1cb122f3ae9 |
| Michael Blake | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ny-15-democratic-primary-winner-michael-blake-polymarket-0x1522a8bc6e0edaec715b93b1bb35558ff56906ede6bcbe55282267a8a167fa64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ritchie Torres | Michael Blake |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 86 | 11 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 86 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 87 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 12 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 11 |
| 2026-05-07 | 90 | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Michael Blake −10pp 22→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ritchie Torres +4pp 87→91¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that the current leader will win New York's 15th District Democratic primary. At 87%, the market is pricing in a substantial but not overwhelming advantage for the frontrunner. The probability reflects factors including candidate name recognition, recent polling trends, fundraising disparities, and organizational strength within the district. The primary election itself will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market. Price movements between now and election day would likely reflect updated polling data, unexpected candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or shifts in voter turnout expectations. The 13-point gap to the runner-up suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether structural advantages will translate to primary victory, given potential late-breaking developments or polling error in local contests.

### Key factors

- Current polling position and trend trajectory among likely primary voters in NY-15
- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for the leading candidates through most recent FEC reporting
- Geographic distribution and demographic composition of the district versus candidate base of support
- Endorsements from local elected officials, community organizations, and established party figures
- Registered Democrat turnout patterns and voter mobilization capacity of competing campaigns in the district

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny15-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny15-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.