# NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

> Beth Davidson leads at 39%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny17-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.993Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Beth Davidson at 39%
- Runner-up: Cait Conley at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $530

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Davidson | 39¢ | −4pp | $87 | polymarket | /markets/ny-17-democratic-primary-winner-beth-davidson-polymarket-0xd81e304a53cfdac107189a8ab1fe862416c4f6de3a009b3243d057eb89fa8491 |
| Cait Conley | 37¢ | ±0 | $182 | polymarket | /markets/ny-17-democratic-primary-winner-cait-conley-polymarket-0xed5dbf2e63a4222099bcbaf60c4c70333b29c2940d0f127c8da2ee0920632d34 |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | 26¢ | +6pp | $262 | polymarket | /markets/ny-17-democratic-primary-winner-effie-phillips-sta-polymarket-0xcff21408bae4d1c6f2a293c097404979f083d2948af2fb09cf64efb0bbca6bb5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Beth Davidson | Cait Conley | Effie Phillips-Staley |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 17 | 54 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 46 | 38 | 10 |
| 2026-05-01 | 36 | 48 | 10 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-09 | 39 | 38 | 25 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Cait Conley −10pp 48→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Beth Davidson −9pp 52→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Effie Phillips-Staley +7pp 11→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Effie Phillips-Staley +6pp 19→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Beth Davidson +6pp 38→44¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 48% probability indicates that the leading candidate in the NY-17 Democratic primary is favored but faces meaningful competition, with roughly even odds of victory when accounting for the runner-up at 40%. Primary outcomes depend on factors including candidate endorsements, voter registration shifts in the district, media coverage intensity, and turnout patterns in specific areas. The actual primary election date will be the definitive resolution event. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty about whether frontrunner momentum will hold or whether consolidation around alternative candidates could shift the race. Factors like debate performance, campaign spending reports, and local polling—if released closer to voting—could substantially move expectations.

### Key factors

- Candidate endorsement patterns from local Democratic party figures and established politicians
- Voter turnout modeling for the specific NY-17 district demographics on primary day
- Campaign finance reports showing spending disparities and available resources among major candidates
- Any public polling data released in the 30-60 days before the primary election
- District-level registration changes or demographic shifts that may have occurred since the last cycle

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny17-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny17-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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