# Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny17d
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $41K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Davidson | 23¢ | −2pp | $26K | kalshi | /markets/will-beth-davidson-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-n-kalshi-kxny17d-26-bdav |
| Cait Conley | 67¢ | +1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-cait-conley-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-kalshi-kxny17d-26-ccon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 40 |
| 2026-06-11 | 47 |
| 2026-06-18 | 48 |
| 2026-06-24 | 48 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Cait Conley −10pp 86→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Beth Davidson +9pp 11→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Beth Davidson −7pp 21→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Cait Conley +7pp 75→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Cait Conley +5pp 82→87¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 32% probability that Beth Davidson will become the Democratic nominee for the New York 17th Congressional District seat. The current odds reflect uncertainty around whether Davidson will be the strongest candidate in what appears to be an open or competitive Democratic primary. Market probability typically rises if Davidson secures endorsements from party leadership, generates fundraising momentum, or gains visibility through candidate forums and debates. The primary election date would serve as the critical resolution point, with early signs of candidate strength—such as polling data, cash-on-hand reports, or organizational capacity—likely to shift probabilities beforehand. Davidson's nomination chances depend on the strength of competing candidates in the primary field, her ability to build donor and grassroots support, and whether any major political developments affect the district's dynamics.

### Key factors

- Strength and number of competing Democratic candidates in the NY-17 primary field
- Davidson's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to opponents
- Endorsement patterns from party officials, unions, and local organizations
- Primary election date and timing of key candidate announcements or debate performances
- Recent polling or survey data among likely Democratic primary voters in the district

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny17d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny17d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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