# Will Julie Won be the Democratic nominee for NY-07

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny7d
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $228K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Reynoso | 15¢ | −4pp | $146K | kalshi | /markets/will-antonio-reynoso-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxny7d-26-arey |
| Claire Valdez | 82¢ | +10pp | $81K | kalshi | /markets/will-claire-valdez-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-n-kalshi-kxny7d-26-cval |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 50 |
| 2026-06-14 | 51 |
| 2026-06-21 | 50 |
| 2026-06-24 | 53 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Claire Valdez +10pp 79→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Antonio Reynoso −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Antonio Reynoso −3pp 23→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 34% probability indicates that prediction market participants currently view Julie Won as the third-most likely candidate to secure the Democratic nomination for New York's 7th congressional district. The market is pricing in Claire Valdez as the frontrunner at 67%, with Antonio Reynoso at 28%. Won's positioning reflects assessments of candidate fundraising, endorsements, polling performance, and organizational capacity relative to her competitors. The probability could shift upward if Won gains major endorsements, demonstrates stronger fundraising, or polling shows improved name recognition or voter preference. Conversely, it could decline if competing candidates consolidate support or if Won faces organizational challenges. The nomination process timeline and any scheduled primary debates or campaign events will likely drive trading activity as more concrete information becomes available.

### Key factors

- Relative fundraising totals among the three candidates and whether Won has achieved parity with Valdez or Reynoso
- Endorsements from local party figures, union leaders, or other influential Democratic stakeholders in NY-07
- Polling data on voter preference and name recognition among Democratic primary voters in the district
- Candidate organization metrics including field staff, volunteer capacity, and voter contact operations
- Any scheduled primary debates, forums, or campaign events where candidates directly compete for voter attention

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ny7d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ny7d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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