# Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 30000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027

> Above 15,000 leads at 87%, runner-up 77% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycaffordable
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:51.202Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 15,000 at 87%
- Runner-up: Above 20,000 at 77%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15,000 | 87¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hpds-total-affordable-housing-starts-units-in-kalshi-kxnycaffordable-27jun30-a15000 |
| Above 20,000 | 77¢ | +31pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hpds-total-affordable-housing-starts-units-in-kalshi-kxnycaffordable-27jun30-a20000 |
| Above 25,000 | 67¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hpds-total-affordable-housing-starts-units-in-kalshi-kxnycaffordable-27jun30-a25000 |
| Above 30,000 | 57¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hpds-total-affordable-housing-starts-units-in-kalshi-kxnycaffordable-27jun30-a30000 |
| Above 35,000 | 47¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hpds-total-affordable-housing-starts-units-in-kalshi-kxnycaffordable-27jun30-a35000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 15,000 | Above 20,000 | Above 25,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 37 | 33 | 38 |
| 2026-09-10 | 86 | 76 | 66 |
| 2026-09-17 | 87 | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 22 | 19 | 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | 87 | 77 | 67 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Above 15,000 −65pp 87→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 20,000 −57pp 76→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 25,000 −53pp 66→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 30,000 −45pp 56→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 35,000 −35pp 46→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 59% probability that New York City's Department of Housing Preservation and Development (HPD) will report more than 30,000 affordable housing unit starts during fiscal year 2027 (July 2026–June 2027) in the annual Mayor's Management Report. The distribution of contract prices—ranging from 92% probability above 15,000 units down to 46% above 35,000 units—suggests traders expect outcomes concentrated in the 15,000–25,000 range. HPD's actual production capacity, funding availability from city and state budgets, and permitting timelines are the primary factors shaping expectations. The outcome will be definitively resolved when HPD publishes its official Mayor's Management Report in summer 2027, which reports the prior fiscal year's housing starts. Historical performance data and current project pipelines suggest most traders view 30,000 starts as an ambitious but achievable target.

### Key factors

- HPD's historical annual affordable housing starts (2020–2025) provide a baseline for assessing whether 30,000 units represents continuation, acceleration, or a departure from recent trends
- Current city and state capital budgets committed to HPD housing development programs as of mid-2026 determine available funding to initiate new projects during the fiscal year
- The volume of projects that received final permits and were ready to break ground by July 2026 directly constrains starts possible during the July 2026–June 2027 period
- NYC's construction labor market conditions and material costs in late 2026 affect whether developers can actually mobilize workforce and equipment to begin projects
- The Mayor's Management Report definition of 'housing starts' (likely tied to DHCR filings or formal construction commencement) determines the exact counting methodology used to calculate the final reported number

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycaffordable
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nycaffordable

## License

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