# Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,800

> Above $3,800 leads at 94%, runner-up 81% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycaskrent
Updated: 2026-08-27T08:20:51.961Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $3,800 at 94%
- Runner-up: Above $3,900 at 81%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $925

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3,800 | 94¢ | +2pp | $825 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t3800 |
| Above $3,900 | 81¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t3900 |
| Above $4,000 | 41¢ | −17pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t4000 |
| Above $4,100 | 24¢ | −21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t4100 |
| Above $4,200 | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t4200 |
| Above $4,300 | 8¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t4300 |
| Above $4,400 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t4400 |
| Above $4,500 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-citys-median-asking-rent-for-decembe-kalshi-kxnycaskrent-27jan31-t4500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $3,800 | Above $3,900 | Above $4,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 63 | 44 | 30 |
| 2026-08-19 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 94 | 66 | 57 |
| 2026-08-23 | 92 | 86 | 58 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | 41 |
| 2026-08-26 | 94 | — | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above $4,000 +27pp 30→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above $3,900 +22pp 44→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above $4,100 +21pp 22→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above $4,100 −21pp 43→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above $3,900 +20pp 66→86¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market assigns a 93% probability that New York City's median asking rent will exceed $3,800 in December 2026, reflecting strong confidence in continued rent elevation. This assessment is grounded in recent rental trends showing sustained upward pressure across Manhattan and outer boroughs, though the declining probabilities for higher thresholds ($3,900 at 84%, $4,000 at 56%) suggest meaningful uncertainty about how much further rents will rise. The outcome depends primarily on housing supply dynamics—whether new construction moderates vacancy rates—and demand factors including migration patterns and employment growth in finance and tech sectors. December 2026 data from appraisal firms like StreetEasy and Zillow, typically released in early 2027, will definitively resolve this question. Current low trading volume indicates limited recent position changes among market participants.

### Key factors

- NYC median asking rent reached approximately $3,600–$3,700 as of mid-2026; a $100–$200 additional increase over 4 months is required to hit $3,800
- New housing completions in NYC and vacancy rate changes will directly affect supply-side pressure on rents
- Employment growth or contraction in high-wage sectors and migration inflows/outflows over Q3–Q4 2026 will shape tenant demand
- The probability ladder shows material doubt above $3,800: $3,900 drops to 84%, and $4,000 to 56%, indicating consensus expects modest but not dramatic further growth
- December rent data from StreetEasy, Zillow, or similar sources—the official resolution mechanism—will be published in early 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycaskrent
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nycaskrent

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.