# How many billionaires will New York City lose this year

> At least 3 leads at 51%, runner-up 22% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycbillionaires
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.279Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: At least 3 at 51%
- Runner-up: At least 8 at 22%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $88

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 | 51¢ | −1pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-billionaires-will-new-york-city-lose-this-kalshi-kxnycbillionaires-26-120 |
| At least 8 | 22¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-billionaires-will-new-york-city-lose-this-kalshi-kxnycbillionaires-26-115 |
| At least 13 | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-billionaires-will-new-york-city-lose-this-kalshi-kxnycbillionaires-26-110 |
| At least 23 | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-billionaires-will-new-york-city-lose-this-kalshi-kxnycbillionaires-26-100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 3 | At least 8 | At least 13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 53 | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 33 | 21 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 54 | 26 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 52 | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 12 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 53% probability that New York City will experience a net loss of billionaires during 2026. The outcome depends primarily on wealth fluctuations driven by stock market performance, business valuations, and major M&A activity involving NYC-based billionaire-led companies. Secondary factors include relocation decisions by high-net-worth individuals and changes in net worth calculations as of year-end. The market will resolve based on billionaire roster counts from tracking organizations like Forbes, typically published in early 2027. Current uncertainty reflects volatility in tech stocks and real estate values, which significantly impact NYC billionaire wealth.

### Key factors

- Stock market performance for major NYSE-listed companies owned by NYC billionaires will directly affect whether threshold wealth levels are maintained or crossed
- Corporate acquisition or IPO activity in 2026 could rapidly change billionaire status for founders or majority shareholders
- Real estate valuations and commercial property market conditions impact billionaire net worth calculations, particularly relevant for NYC-based real estate moguls
- Relocation patterns of high-net-worth individuals to other states may reduce NYC's billionaire count independent of wealth changes
- Forbes or similar tracking organizations' methodology and timing for year-end billionaire list publication will determine the resolution baseline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycbillionaires
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nycbillionaires

## License

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