# What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debate

> Million leads at 97%, runner-up 45% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycmdebmention
Updated: 2026-05-05T12:50:32.443Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-22

## Headline

- Leader: Million at 97%
- Runner-up: Clue at 45%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Million | 97¢ | +12pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-mill |
| Clue | 45¢ | +3pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-clue |
| Drama | 38¢ | +3pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-dram |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | 36¢ | +5pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-betr |
| Blood / Bloody | 31¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-bloo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Million | Clue | Drama |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 85 | 36 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 97 | 39 | 39 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Million +12pp 85→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal +5pp 11→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Drama +3pp 36→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Clue +3pp 36→39¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycmdebmention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nycmdebmention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.