# Will the NYC Department of Homeless Services’ average length of stay for single adults in shelter in the full-fiscal Mayor’s Management Report be above 350 days for Fiscal Year 2027 (July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 18 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycstat
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.407Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10,000 | 25¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-citywide-number-of-2-k-seats-new-york-cit-kalshi-kxnycstat-2k27-a10000 |
| Above 12,000 | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-citywide-number-of-2-k-seats-new-york-cit-kalshi-kxnycstat-2k27-a12000 |
| Above 14,000 | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-citywide-number-of-2-k-seats-new-york-cit-kalshi-kxnycstat-2k27-a14000 |
| Above 4,000 | 75¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-citywide-number-of-2-k-seats-new-york-cit-kalshi-kxnycstat-2k27-a4000 |
| Above 6,000 | 53¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-citywide-number-of-2-k-seats-new-york-cit-kalshi-kxnycstat-2k27-a6000 |
| Above 8,000 | 39¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-citywide-number-of-2-k-seats-new-york-cit-kalshi-kxnycstat-2k27-a8000 |
| At least 8 mph | 3¢ | −31pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mtas-monthly-key-performance-metric-for-o-kalshi-kxnycstat-bus26-al8 |
| At least 8.1 mph | 4¢ | −30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mtas-monthly-key-performance-metric-for-o-kalshi-kxnycstat-bus26-al8.1 |
| At least 8.2 mph | 3¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mtas-monthly-key-performance-metric-for-o-kalshi-kxnycstat-bus26-al8.2 |
| At least 8.3 mph | 4¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mtas-monthly-key-performance-metric-for-o-kalshi-kxnycstat-bus26-al8.3 |
| At least 8.4 mph | 3¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mtas-monthly-key-performance-metric-for-o-kalshi-kxnycstat-bus26-al8.4 |
| At least 8.5 mph | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-mtas-monthly-key-performance-metric-for-o-kalshi-kxnycstat-bus26-al8.5 |
| Above 170 million | 3¢ | −27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sum-of-the-mtas-crz-entries-measure-acros-kalshi-kxnycstat-cong26-a170000000 |
| Above 175 million | 4¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sum-of-the-mtas-crz-entries-measure-acros-kalshi-kxnycstat-cong26-a175000000 |
| Above 180 million | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sum-of-the-mtas-crz-entries-measure-acros-kalshi-kxnycstat-cong26-a180000000 |
| Above 185 million | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sum-of-the-mtas-crz-entries-measure-acros-kalshi-kxnycstat-cong26-a185000000 |
| At least 1 | 5¢ | −39pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cumulative-number-of-nyc-groceries-stores-kalshi-kxnycstat-groc29-al1 |
| At least 2 | 3¢ | −29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-cumulative-number-of-nyc-groceries-stores-kalshi-kxnycstat-groc29-al2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 37 |
| 2026-09-11 | 54 |
| 2026-09-19 | 27 |
| 2026-09-25 | 14 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · At least 8 mph −84pp 87→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 1 −69pp 88→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Above 4,000 −62pp 74→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · At least 2 −62pp 79→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · At least 8.1 mph −61pp 73→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that New York City's shelter system will report an average length of stay exceeding 350 days for single adults during fiscal year 2027 in its official Mayor's Management Report. The 56% reading suggests near even odds. Length of stay depends primarily on housing placement rates and shelter intake volumes—faster placements to permanent housing or supportive units would reduce average stay, while continued high demand and limited exits would extend it. The resolution will depend on data published in the Mayor's Management Report, typically released in fall 2027, which will contain the official FY2027 metric. Key pressures include New York City's ongoing housing shortage, shelter system capacity constraints, and the pace of permanent housing placements through various municipal programs.

### Key factors

- NYC Department of Homeless Services' single adult shelter census size and trend through FY2027, as reported in monthly management reports
- Monthly housing placement rate for single adults exiting shelter into permanent housing or supportive housing programs
- Total annual shelter intakes for single adults during the fiscal year period, indicating whether demand remains elevated
- Average length of stay trend as of spring 2027 and whether it is tracking above or below 350 days, which would signal likely final outcome
- Changes in policy, funding, or program capacity affecting either shelter intake prevention or exit placement velocity during the fiscal year

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nycstat
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nycstat

## License

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