# Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.6 million TEUs

> Above 8.4 million TEUs leads at 95%, runner-up 91% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nynjportteu
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.197Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 8.4 million TEUs at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 8.5 million TEUs at 91%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.4 million TEUs | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t8.4 |
| Above 8.5 million TEUs | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t8.5 |
| Above 8.6 million TEUs | 81¢ | +21pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t8.6 |
| Above 8.7 million TEUs | 70¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t8.7 |
| Above 8.8 million TEUs | 50¢ | −3pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t8.8 |
| Above 8.9 million TEUs | 40¢ | +3pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t8.9 |
| Above 9.0 million TEUs | 25¢ | −7pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t9.0 |
| Above 9.1 million TEUs | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-port-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-total-teus-ha-kalshi-kxnynjportteu-27feb28-t9.1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 8.4 million TEUs | Above 8.5 million TEUs | Above 8.6 million TEUs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | — | 74 |
| 2026-08-20 | 92 | 86 | 76 |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — | 81 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above 8.9 million TEUs +27pp 10→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 8.6 million TEUs −23pp 83→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 8.6 million TEUs +21pp 60→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 9.0 million TEUs +21pp 10→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 8.7 million TEUs +19pp 51→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that the Port of New York and New Jersey will handle above 8.6 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in 2026. The current 74% probability suggests broad confidence in reaching this threshold, which represents steady container traffic at or slightly above recent operational levels. The main drivers of this view are (1) baseline demand from East Coast imports and regional trade patterns, and (2) the port's operational capacity and labor agreements following recent labor negotiations. The resolution depends on final 2026 container volumes, typically reported in early 2027. Key uncertainty around more aggressive thresholds—only 37% above 8.8 million TEUs—indicates skepticism about exceptional growth. Downward pressure could come from macroeconomic contraction, shifts in supply chains away from East Coast ports, or operational disruptions. Upward pressure would require sustained or growing import demand throughout 2026.

### Key factors

- East Coast container import demand trends through 2026, particularly from consumer goods and industrial supply chains
- Port labor availability and strike-related disruptions following the 2024-2025 labor agreement negotiations
- Competitive dynamics with other U.S. ports (Charleston, Savannah, Los Angeles) affecting cargo routing decisions
- The difference between the 8.6M and 8.8M probabilities (74% vs. 37%) indicates market skepticism about volume growth beyond modest baselines
- Historical 2025 throughput figures and stated operator capacity utilization rates heading into year-end

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nynjportteu
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nynjportteu

## License

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