# Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01

> Closed. Last odds frozen 22 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nyprimary
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana K Kastenbaum | 16¢ | −12pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-diana-k-kastenbaum-be-the-democratic-nominee-kalshi-kxnyprimary-24d26-dkas |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 14 |
| 2026-06-21 | 27 |
| 2026-06-22 | 26 |
| 2026-06-23 | 21 |
| 2026-06-24 | 9 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Diana K Kastenbaum +13pp 14→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Diana K Kastenbaum −12pp 21→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Diana K Kastenbaum −5pp 26→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Christopher Gallant will win the Democratic primary to represent New York's 1st Congressional District. The current 43% assessment indicates a competitive but uncertain race, with Lukas Ventouras priced at 28% as the second candidate. Key drivers of this probability include candidate funding, endorsements from local Democratic Party figures, and primary turnout patterns in eastern Long Island. The primary election date and subsequent vote totals will ultimately resolve this contract, providing definitive evidence of which candidate secured the Democratic nomination. The market prices in meaningful uncertainty, suggesting no single candidate has consolidated overwhelming support among Democratic voters in the district. Recent polling, candidate fundraising reports, and grassroots organization strength would significantly influence these probabilities closer to the election.

### Key factors

- Christopher Gallant's fundraising total and cash-on-hand position relative to primary opponents
- Endorsement pattern from established Democratic officials and organizations in NY-01
- Primary election turnout in NY-01 relative to historical averages, which affects which voter segment determines the outcome
- Polling data on candidate favorability and name recognition among registered Democrats in the district
- Campaign infrastructure and volunteer organization metrics in key precincts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nyprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nyprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.