# Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nyprimarycombo
Updated: 2026-06-24T04:20:51.181Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: Chevalier and Bores lose at 37%
- Runner-up: Chevalier and Bores win at 17%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $87

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chevalier and Bores lose | 37¢ | −24pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-darializa-avila-chevalier-be-defeated-in-the-kalshi-kxnyprimarycombo-26sep-ll |
| Chevalier and Bores win | 17¢ | −23pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-darializa-avila-chevalier-be-victorious-in-th-kalshi-kxnyprimarycombo-26sep-ww |
| Chevalier wins, Bores loses | 11¢ | +41pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-darializa-avila-chevalier-be-victorious-in-th-kalshi-kxnyprimarycombo-26sep-wl |
| Chevalier loses, Bores wins | 3¢ | −3pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-darializa-avila-chevalier-be-defeated-in-the-kalshi-kxnyprimarycombo-26sep-lw |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chevalier and Bores lose | Chevalier and Bores win | Chevalier wins, Bores loses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 38 | 33 | 8 |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | 10 | 49 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Chevalier wins, Bores loses +41pp 8→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Chevalier and Bores lose −24pp 38→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Chevalier and Bores win −23pp 33→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Chevalier loses, Bores wins −3pp 8→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Democrat Darializa Avila Chevalier wins the NY-13 primary while simultaneously Alex Bores loses the NY-12 primary in September 2026. The current 37% reading suggests this combined outcome is possible but unlikely. The pricing likely reflects uncertainty about both candidates' fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition relative to their opponents in these adjacent New York districts. The September 2026 primary election itself is the key event that will resolve all uncertainty. Shifts in this probability would typically follow major campaign developments, polling releases if conducted, or endorsements from notable figures in either district. The combination requirement makes this less probable than either outcome independently, since both conditions must be met simultaneously.

### Key factors

- Primary election date is scheduled for September 2026; no earlier resolution mechanism exists
- NY-13 and NY-12 are distinct races with separate electorates, so outcomes are not perfectly correlated but may share regional political trends
- Avila Chevalier's performance depends on her relative position among NY-13 Democratic candidates; Bores' defeat requires a competing candidate to accumulate more votes
- Campaign spending, endorsement patterns, and voter contact intensity between now and September will materially affect candidate viability
- Both seats' Democratic primary electorate composition and turnout assumptions significantly impact the probability of this specific two-outcome combination

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nyprimarycombo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nyprimarycombo
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.