# NZ Election

> National Party # of seats?: 30-34 leads at 50%, runner-up 49% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nz-election
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.266Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-07

## Headline

- Leader: National Party # of seats?: 30-34 at 50%
- Runner-up: National Party # of seats?: 35-39 at 49%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Party # of seats?: 30-34 | 50¢ | −3pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-30-34-polymarket-0x099179dbedbd59e9efbbb9dbfae2b764c31ee5ba9bd7f607540faace913e7015 |
| National Party # of seats?: 35-39 | 49¢ | +2pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-35-39-polymarket-0x39fdba8215abd5461323957e73ffb0812474c1fdc1190f03d909ec48dbe05861 |
| Labour Party # of seats?: 35-39 | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-35-39-polymarket-0x396e817dae3b46e07743d70805dcc6743bdc17c1dc31744d4e7f31a2c74dbb4c |
| Labour Party # of seats?: 45-49 | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-45-49-polymarket-0x1b869a78b245981351d45c14570412a9fbd6b4bd8d3525edf176ebec1efb580a |
| National Party # of seats?: 25-29 | 45¢ | +4pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-25-29-polymarket-0xbcf935b6fe0a5164b077f08eb826a4b3cd739b4732e9d4974b235497a3a63b8d |
| National Party # of seats?: 40-44 | 44¢ | +2pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-40-44-polymarket-0xe83b489f8de0140a7a23f7d8583b080975dae0a396759b1e4ebaa2607d2113a7 |
| National Party # of seats?: 50+ | 42¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-50-polymarket-0xd34b1add16357904d1529b4e9dd61fd9497fbbc400066af98655ff36aeabf42b |
| Labour Party # of seats?: 30-34 | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-30-34-polymarket-0x759a7c1ccb03d17031eb045490df2d889bbb35bf8284542eb7a731a3bcb16fa2 |
| Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: Labour 0-5% | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-labour-polymarket-0x3178e675218fc6c9d35884a6f9d54d69348e35875b096054afa8d33e174469d3 |
| Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: National 0-5% | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-nationa-polymarket-0x542f0066fe04f19616650236308b0e68cd1ac666e96b950ce9a0f8e06488b36d |
| Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: National 5-10% | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-nationa-polymarket-0x5ed3b8bfd744e6e87c601e78ce5dfe34fc6bb56a14156c2b4314d122a90a3c1e |
| National Party # of seats?: <25 | 40¢ | +2pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-25-polymarket-0xfad3e15edada371df355d428a32341606e076a8a16ce62bd4bd6f1af8144b287 |
| Labour Party # of seats?: 40-44 | 40¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-40-44-polymarket-0xfe45f48ffeff236475b44ed53ec858ab7d4ab5509485a515777c7558c4ca48b7 |
| Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: National 10%+ | 39¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-nationa-polymarket-0x1217ae7f4f68cf61ce2b80a8aba64418918660e674029da95a09f1e6e99b9517 |
| Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: Labour 5-10% | 39¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-labour-polymarket-0x55ae051221cdc3d0ca7e075372cf0b52aa72f6a77a80465e728adc1a15c26021 |
| National Party # of seats?: 45-49 | 36¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-national-party-of-seats-45-49-polymarket-0x9979e3cb235e8842a2e4bfae00a058890dacc6b874546ea0bfcf4dbf56e1481c |
| Popular Vote Margin of Victory?: Labour 10-15% | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-labour-polymarket-0x83822c3e212385a9496acbcd213b7bd5e88510948267d6c5512f8259a808b3fc |
| Labour Party # of seats?: <30 | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-30-polymarket-0x0a150e16a89e7256ca3d0dfbfaa8ab2007a81b9068bbadef297421b23937e8bf |
| Labour Party # of seats?: 50-54 | 24¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-50-54-polymarket-0x645bb9d5a71b31fff466a1f13156ce4dc06cd7f9b5fc8e97ce3e1c01549acb3d |
| Labour Party # of seats?: 55+ | 14¢ | −18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats-55-polymarket-0xa0082afab16eba836cacdee3084b777b10046c2bfd671f8eb5fec88d25a1958f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | National Party # of seats?: 30-34 | National Party # of seats?: 35-39 | Labour Party # of seats?: 35-39 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 46 | 48 | 45 |
| 2026-05-26 | 46 | 48 | 44 |
| 2026-05-27 | 45 | 45 | 47 |
| 2026-05-28 | 42 | 47 | 47 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Labour Party # of seats?: 55+ −18pp 27→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Labour Party # of seats?: 50-54 +8pp 28→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · National Party # of seats?: 50+ +6pp 32→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · National Party # of seats?: 50+ −6pp 38→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Labour Party # of seats?: 55+ −5pp 32→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a market assessment that the National Party will win 35–39 seats in the upcoming New Zealand election, with a 50% implied probability for this specific outcome band. The current odds reflect uncertainty about whether National will form a majority coalition, as the runner-up outcome sits at 45%. Market pricing across related contracts suggests traders expect a close result, with material probability also assigned to National underperforming (30–34 seats at 38¢) and Labour performing better than baseline (45–49 seats at 47¢). The next scheduled election date will determine the final seat count; polling trends, campaign momentum, and coalition arithmetic leading into that vote would shift probabilities. The tight clustering of prices across multiple outcomes indicates limited consensus on the exact composition of Parliament rather than high confidence in any single scenario.

### Key factors

- National Party seat forecasting from recent public polls and their trend trajectory
- Labour Party performance relative to expectations, particularly in the 45–49 seat range valued at 47¢
- Viability and likelihood of coalition partners available to either major party to reach or exceed 61 seats for a working majority
- Margin of victory in party list vote share, with National 10%+ margin priced at 40¢ suggesting material downside scenarios
- Scheduled election date and any campaign events or economic data releases that could shift voter preference before voting occurs

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/nz-election
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=nz-election
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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